I read a very thought provoking article yesterday on the The Oil Drum by Chris Vernon. Chris's basic premise is that if we can accept that climate change is largely being caused by humans and more specifically by humans burning carbon based fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) then our primary goal has to be to burn less carbon based fuels. We can run around trading carbon credits, planting trees or improving efficiency all we want but if doing these things does not result in less use of carbon based fuels then we haven't really accomplished anything. Chris is saying that by focusing on how we consume carbon based fuels we are missing the real opportunity. The only carbon not going into the atmosphere is carbon then is not produced in the first place. We need to focus on keeping the oil, natural gas and coal in the ground.
To any adherent of the theory of peak oil (peak gas, peak coal), this should really resonate. Becoming super efficient in the use of fossil fuels won't gain you any traction in the fight against global warming. In a world fast approaching peak oil or perhaps even past the peak, demand will always outstrip supply as we move forward. Spare capacity only exists where the cost of oil exceeds the cost of doing without. So far the only players that have been priced out of the oil markets as oil approaches $100 a barrel are poor countries. How much further do we need to go before leaving oil in the ground is more cost effective then producing it for the rich countries?
I have run up against this logic before but never made the link to how it will affect our response to global warming. Jevon's paradox states that increasing efficiency can sometimes lead to higher consumption not lower. We see this paradox in action when we look at CAFE standards (Corporate Average Fuel Economy) in the US. US Congress is currently debating the first increase in CAFE standards in 30 years. The senate already passed the bill and now the battle has moved to congress. The debate isn't on whether or not to increase CAFE standards but by how much. 35mpgby2020 is a lobby group that is pushing for the higher standard of 35mpg by 2020. The auto industry is lobbying for a lower target of 32mpg by 2022. The fact is that the auto industry could meet the higher standard in a couple of years if properly motivated. 35mpg is not a very high bar with the technologies that have been developed over the years. The auto industry has consistently improved fuel efficiency over the years but these improvements have been offset by increasing vehicle weights. Some people even believe the higher standard could be met without decreasing vehicle weights (See Saving Gas and Saving Lives).
Regardless of the outcome of the debate on CAFE standards, any fuel savings (and they are substantial) would only enable the US to drive more. If we are really looking at a near term peak in oil production then CAFE standards won't matter much by 2020 or 2022. In my opinion, whatever gas is being burnt in 13 or 15 years will be burnt as efficiently as possible regardless of what laws are in place.
As long as global oil production and global oil consumption is being driven by market forces, you can be certain that oil will be produced to maximize profits and every drop of oil produced will find an eager buyer. Will oil peak soon enough to save our planet? Can we change the nature of our markets to put the fight against global warming ahead of economics? Will the political will develop to combat climate change before we've done irreversible damage to our climate? I'm not optimistic but I certainly hope so.
velomobility
Wednesday, November 21, 2007
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Chasing Affluence
My first career job was in the auto industry. Well OK, I wasn't really 'in' the industry, I worked at a car dealership. It was a large dealership and it was owned by a family that owned many dealerships but still, it was just a car store. But I liked to say I was in the auto industry as that sounded better than working at a car dealer. One of the benefits of working at a dealership was that you got to drive a new car all the time. While you didn't always end up with a top of the line car, more often than not, you had a very nice set of wheels. After leaving the car business, I finally had to look after my own transportation needs. That was quite a rude awakening. The cars I was used to driving were now well beyond my means. I had to take what seemed to me a large step down the affluence ladder. My friends were used to seeing me in brand new SUV's or sports cars. Showing up one day in a 2 year old compact sedan was embarrassing for me. As soon as I could afford to move a little more upscale, I did. I bough a used SUV that was in great shape and had all the luxury do-dads that I had gotten used to. I leased that used SUV. When that lease ended I took another step up the "look at my ride" ladder. I bought (OK leased) my first brand new vehicle. Another big bad SUV. I got it with leather seats, moon roof, a kick ass stereo. I added every available option save the GPS navigation which I just couldn't justify in my mind. I mostly drive to and from work and rarely drive anywhere that I haven't been a million times before. (wow do I sound boring).
It was during the final year of the lease on my beautiful luxury SUV that I became aware of global warming and then the issue of our future energy challenges. I started riding to work most days and eventually grew to be almost ashamed to drive my SUV around. If I was going out of town, I would try to arrange to carpool, either in my vehicle or someone else's. The vehicle that I was so proud to finally have when I first got it was now more shameful to me than the used sedan I had after leaving the car business.
During the first month after I left the auto industry, I spent a few weeks without any vehicle. I was interviewing and had lots of other things going on at the time so being without personal transportation seemed a huge inconvenience. I borrowed my Mom's vehicle when I could and took taxis and (oh my god) I even took the bus once. At the end of my lease on my luxury SUV, I considered not getting another vehicle. It was the memory of living without a vehicle for just a few weeks that convinced me to get another vehicle. I bought (yes bought) a used compact sedan. It gets 100% better gas mileage than my SUV did. I can't carry around half my worldly possessions in it like I could (and most of the time did) with my SUV. I still ride to work when I can and I've started walking when I have the time.
I honestly believe that my current vehicle's odometer will never make it past 100,000km (currently around 35,000km). Not because it breaks down or gets written off in a car accident. I believe I, or perhaps the next owner, will just park it in their driveway one day and never drive it again. Not because there's no gas to be had but because gas is so expensive and the alternatives to driving make more sense.
I plan to get back into the car business one day in the future. But instead of helping to put more cars on the road, my career will be as an auto recycler, finding a way to use all those rusting vehicles that will never be burning gas again. Maybe I'll get that GPS unit after all.
velomobility
It was during the final year of the lease on my beautiful luxury SUV that I became aware of global warming and then the issue of our future energy challenges. I started riding to work most days and eventually grew to be almost ashamed to drive my SUV around. If I was going out of town, I would try to arrange to carpool, either in my vehicle or someone else's. The vehicle that I was so proud to finally have when I first got it was now more shameful to me than the used sedan I had after leaving the car business.
During the first month after I left the auto industry, I spent a few weeks without any vehicle. I was interviewing and had lots of other things going on at the time so being without personal transportation seemed a huge inconvenience. I borrowed my Mom's vehicle when I could and took taxis and (oh my god) I even took the bus once. At the end of my lease on my luxury SUV, I considered not getting another vehicle. It was the memory of living without a vehicle for just a few weeks that convinced me to get another vehicle. I bought (yes bought) a used compact sedan. It gets 100% better gas mileage than my SUV did. I can't carry around half my worldly possessions in it like I could (and most of the time did) with my SUV. I still ride to work when I can and I've started walking when I have the time.
I honestly believe that my current vehicle's odometer will never make it past 100,000km (currently around 35,000km). Not because it breaks down or gets written off in a car accident. I believe I, or perhaps the next owner, will just park it in their driveway one day and never drive it again. Not because there's no gas to be had but because gas is so expensive and the alternatives to driving make more sense.
I plan to get back into the car business one day in the future. But instead of helping to put more cars on the road, my career will be as an auto recycler, finding a way to use all those rusting vehicles that will never be burning gas again. Maybe I'll get that GPS unit after all.
velomobility
Monday, November 19, 2007
We're all in this together
My motivation for starting this blog was to try and organize my thoughts on issues currently confronting society that I feel we are collectively unprepared for. If we ever consider it, we all know and on some level understand that our society as we know it will not last forever. However even the small percentage of people that entertain such thoughts would quickly file away such doom and gloom thinking and carry on with their daily lives. Our culture frowns on pessimism or anything that can be construed as pessimism. Pessimist can sometimes be labeled as Chicken Little's who are forever waiting for the end of the world as we know it. Pessimism, in my experience, doesn't move one towards better actions or decisions but almost always towards poorer actions or decisions or even inaction or indecision. However optimism isn't any less dangerous in my opinion. Optimism almost always leads to more action vs. less action but not always better action. While there is definitely more to be gained by being optimistic, there is also more to be lost because optimism encourages one to risk more. If we are talking about our love lives or career choices then being a little risky might be well worth it, even if we loose out in the short term. However if we are talking about gambling our pay cheques at the roulette table then unguarded optimism might seems a little more out of place.
I would not characterize myself as optimistic or pessimistic. I am a realist. When presented with a problem or situation, I don't stop to consider if it's fair that I've been presented with such a problem. I also don't immediatly consider all the ramifications that this problem will have on me. I usually just deal with it. I don't spend much time or energy on deciding whether the problem or issue will lead to a good outcome or a bad one. I just do what I can to deal with it as best I can. I always strive for a good outcome and never look at a problem as being hopeless or impossible.
When I first started reading about global warming and all it's implications, I didn't worry. I wasn't pessimistic about my own future or that of my friends and family. I wasn't even worried about the fate of mankind. I just started questioning how what I was doing was impacting the issue of global warming. There didn't seem much more one person could do. The problem was and still remains somewhat controversial. The reading I was doing on global warming led me to the related yet distinct issue of peak oil. Since delving into that subject, I have read almost everything I could lay my hands on. My education on peak oil is ongoing as I have become fascinated with the issue. Peak Oil and Global warming have much in common as some of the actions we can take to mitigate one issue could also mitigate the other issue. Of course there are also some mitigating actions for peak oil that would make global warming worse.
Over the years I've seen many references to the 5 stages of grief. I've been very fortunate in my life to have never lost someone close to me. However this good fortune means I haven't developed any coping mechanism to deal with personal tragedy. I've been laid-off and dumped (more than once) and had to deal with some grief. However, I'm sure anyone who has lost a loved one could view my personal tragedies as you might compare a little indigestion to the pain of childbirth. I googled "stages of grief" and was instantly rewarded with the wiki on the Kübler-Ross model for dealing with grief. According to Kubler-Ross, the five stages are:
Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
Anger: "Why ME? It's not fair!" (either referring to God, oneself, or anybody perceived, rightly or wrongly, as "responsible")
Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my child(ren) graduate."
Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."
I believe most individuals and society as a whole will have to deal with the grief of global warming and peak oil according to the Kubler-Ross model. I know I've been through all these stages. Starting this blog is part of my acceptance. I suspect most people and hence society as a whole are still in first stage denial. The reality of Peak Oil and Global Warming may mean that many are forced through each of the stages much more rapidly than I have been able to go through them.
I might disagree with Kubler-Ross. Acceptance of a personal tradegy might lead you to believe that "It's going to be OK". With Peak Oil and Global warming, it's not going to be OK. Or perhaps more accurately, It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I would also want to add a sixth stage to the model. Action! Once you have accepted that these issues are real and will impact everyone on this planet to some degree, it's time to get off you arse and do something about it.
velomobilty
I would not characterize myself as optimistic or pessimistic. I am a realist. When presented with a problem or situation, I don't stop to consider if it's fair that I've been presented with such a problem. I also don't immediatly consider all the ramifications that this problem will have on me. I usually just deal with it. I don't spend much time or energy on deciding whether the problem or issue will lead to a good outcome or a bad one. I just do what I can to deal with it as best I can. I always strive for a good outcome and never look at a problem as being hopeless or impossible.
When I first started reading about global warming and all it's implications, I didn't worry. I wasn't pessimistic about my own future or that of my friends and family. I wasn't even worried about the fate of mankind. I just started questioning how what I was doing was impacting the issue of global warming. There didn't seem much more one person could do. The problem was and still remains somewhat controversial. The reading I was doing on global warming led me to the related yet distinct issue of peak oil. Since delving into that subject, I have read almost everything I could lay my hands on. My education on peak oil is ongoing as I have become fascinated with the issue. Peak Oil and Global warming have much in common as some of the actions we can take to mitigate one issue could also mitigate the other issue. Of course there are also some mitigating actions for peak oil that would make global warming worse.
Over the years I've seen many references to the 5 stages of grief. I've been very fortunate in my life to have never lost someone close to me. However this good fortune means I haven't developed any coping mechanism to deal with personal tragedy. I've been laid-off and dumped (more than once) and had to deal with some grief. However, I'm sure anyone who has lost a loved one could view my personal tragedies as you might compare a little indigestion to the pain of childbirth. I googled "stages of grief" and was instantly rewarded with the wiki on the Kübler-Ross model for dealing with grief. According to Kubler-Ross, the five stages are:
Denial: The initial stage: "It can't be happening."
Anger: "Why ME? It's not fair!" (either referring to God, oneself, or anybody perceived, rightly or wrongly, as "responsible")
Bargaining: "Just let me live to see my child(ren) graduate."
Depression: "I'm so sad, why bother with anything?"
Acceptance: "It's going to be OK."
I believe most individuals and society as a whole will have to deal with the grief of global warming and peak oil according to the Kubler-Ross model. I know I've been through all these stages. Starting this blog is part of my acceptance. I suspect most people and hence society as a whole are still in first stage denial. The reality of Peak Oil and Global Warming may mean that many are forced through each of the stages much more rapidly than I have been able to go through them.
I might disagree with Kubler-Ross. Acceptance of a personal tradegy might lead you to believe that "It's going to be OK". With Peak Oil and Global warming, it's not going to be OK. Or perhaps more accurately, It's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I would also want to add a sixth stage to the model. Action! Once you have accepted that these issues are real and will impact everyone on this planet to some degree, it's time to get off you arse and do something about it.
velomobilty
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