Velomobiles discussed at The Oil Drum

Phil Hart posted an essay yesterday at The Oil Drum about the future of bicycles - How Big is your Bicycle?. Phil is trying to get people thinking about the subject by asking for opinions on how electric and human powered options should be treated, promoted and controlled. I think this is a great exercise to start getting people thinking about how these transportation alternatives will be incorporated into existing infrastructure.

It would be nice if a sustainable, affordable and environmentally benign alternative to the ICE just arrived tomorrow at your local shopping mall but we all know that isn't going to happen by itself. Niche solutions like the electric vehicle or electric assist bicycles/velomobiles need help on so many levels if they are to be adopted on a wide scale. Without individuals willing to champion the cause, humanity will just sleepwalk into the future without developing any viable solutions to deal with the challenge of moving people and goods around with limited liquid fuels.

Velomobiles in the Star

This bike looks like a car from the Toronto Star, Sunday December 2nd.

"While the notion of a bike wrapped in a sleek body may appeal to some – mostly people who already ride bikes regularly – it's likely that the future of the velomobile lies not in pedal power but in the addition of a small engine. "

Seems someone agrees with me about the future of Velomobiles. The bike shown in the article is the Quest. It sells for around $7,500 excluding freight and duties according to their website.

"For many it will be an expensive toy, for leisure or exercise, not a vehicle for daily commutes to work. "I don't see these becoming a utility tool, not in this particular culture, weaned on cheap gas and big vehicles. In other cultures, especially in Asia, it's more of a possibility," says Londry"

I don't disagree with this guy in the short term. The velomobile I like most (the go-one) goes for around 12 grand. Not something that's going to catch on with the commuter looking for a low cost alternative. However in the medium term, lower cost recumbents with electric assist or even conventional bikes with electric assist will be a viable option for most commuters. The biggest issue that needs to be addressed is secure storage for these bikes once they get to their destinations. Even a relatively inexpensive bike once outfitted with an electric motor becomes a very tasty treat for a bike thief and it's no harder to steal than a regular bike. A full fledged velomobile is a harder target to make off with but it's also worth a lot more so would attract more unwanted attention. You can't just leave a 80 lb. vehicle in a parking lot and expect it to be there 8 hours later. You also can't simply lock a velomobile to a bike rack. Until the issue of security can be solved, widespread use of electric assist bicycles simply will not happen.

"But he does see the velomobile as a step in the evolution of what he calls microvehicles – they're like velomobiles, but have small electric motors and "sex appeal.""

Again, I'm in complete agreement on this. As gas becomes prohibitively expensive, people will begin to realize that driving around a couple of tons of metal doesn't make much sense. If you are ready to rethink your entire mobility strategy then you would also consider the efficiency of the internal combustion engine (ICE) vs. an electric motor. Electric motors are many times more efficient than an ICE and recharging batteries is at least as convenient as refueling a conventional vehicle. Micro-cars will help drive improvements in battery technology as well as get people used to making room on the roads for unconventional vehicles. The line between velomobiles and microcars might blur and eventually converge into a single concept.

velomobility

WIll Recreational Riding go to Hell?

This past weekend I did a little bike ride that is affectionately known as "To Hell and Back". The ride is approximately 140km long and includes numerous off road sections with one 10km portion along an abandoned rail line known as 'the hell section'. This informal ride evolved from a race first run in 1999 so this year's ride marked the 9th annual running. The original course can no longer be ridden due to housing and other developments over the years. Nigel, a local pro triathlete, is the force that organizes this ride each year. Nigel pre-rides most of the course in the weeks leading up to the ride. Nigel scopes out all the off road sections to make sure they are passable (being rideable is not required or even desirable). This is only the 2nd year I've taken part in this ride. Last year, my first time out, the weather was almost balmy for southern Ontario. The weeks leading up to the event were mostly dry so the off road sections were hard packed and generally fast. Last year's ride was very hard more for the tempo we rode it at than for the actual course or distance ridden. Nigel summed up last year's ride as "Hell Light". For him, the harder the better.

I participated in one of the pre-rides a few weeks ago with Nigel and a few others. We did a couple of the early off road sections. This summer and fall were extremely dry in Toronto and the off-road sections we rode were even more hard packed than last year. There also seemed to be a lot less fallen debris and foliage on the trails (perhaps also due to the dry summer we had). We rode all of these off road sections and even managed to ride up a short steep hill that would have been impossible to ride last year.

Well what a difference a few weeks can make. While Toronto proper still hasn't seen significant snowfall, you don't have to go very far north out of the city to see some accumulation. There was a winter storm watch for this past weekend so the ride had to be bumped up to Saturday instead of Sunday to try and beat the storm. Snow wouldn't have been a big problem however freezing rain was forecasted which might have made the road sections too dangerous to ride. The last minute schedule change meant we lost about half of the 15 odd riders who had committed to ride. 8 of us started out around 7:30am. We set out in 2 groups of 4 based on ability. The temperature at the start of the ride was -10°C. The wind wasn't too bad but when you're moving at 20-30km/hr it starts to bite. Fingers and toes are the hardest to keep warm. From past experience riding in winter, I brought hand and toe warmers. Without these I'm not sure I would have lasted more than an hour. By the time we hit the 'hell section' we were as far north as we would go. It was -16°C and what wind there was was in our face. The hell of the 'hell section' for me is the constant battering your body takes as you navigate ruts that you can't see under the covering of snow. Most of the hell section was rideable but still very tough slugging. Had we waited until Sunday it is likely that none of it could have been ridden. Of the 8 that started the ride only 4 of us started the 'hell section'. All four of us finished the hell section and 3 of us managed to regroup after it and rode the final 40km together to the finish. The ride start to finish took us around 8 hours. According to Nigel it was the longest it had ever taken him so this year's hell will go down as the toughest ever as Nigel gets to look after the record book.

Each of the 2 groups on the road had a support vehicle that followed us as best they could. They reloaded us with Gatorade, hot chocolate, food and provided mechanical support where required. Even while doing the ride I wondered how much longer an event like this can take place. The cost of running 2 vehicles for 8 hours would not be enough itself to make this event too costly to run even if gas prices doubled or even tripled. I was thinking more about things like the hand and toe warmers I was using, the high-tech Lycra clothing I was wearing and even the bicycle I was riding. On a better day I could get by without the toe warmers and my store of Lycra clothing isn't going anywhere so even if I could never buy another high-tech piece of clothing I could be riding in winter for years. The bike itself will probably last a long time however tires and cables need replacing regularly. None of these things by themselves are likely to become unavailable as global oil production wanes. What I was thinking of most was how much longer people will be able to justify recreational pursuits of this sort. How many people would willingly take the vehicle they rely on day to day into a rally car race? If your bicycle becomes as indispensable to your daily life as the automobile is today, will it become less of a recreational pursuit than it is today? If you invest a large amount of your energy every day just moving around, would you willingly spend that energy basically riding in one gigantic circle?

Help grow the Tribe!

Everyone who uses the roads in this country, and possibly in any country, has seen this - Two motorcycles pass each other on the road and give each other a friendly wave. Now this doesn't always happen or even happen most of the time, but it does happen often enough for everyone to know what it is. You may not have ever thought long enough about it to give it a word so I will. This is really a form of tribalism. One of our basic human needs is the need to feel like we belong somewhere. As a cyclist I can vouch that this sort of tribalism also happens between cyclist. However as a group I think cyclist are a little more selective (snobby) about who they wave at. I have to admit that even I have been guilty of deciding who I will wave at based on how serious or even how well outfitted they look. If some grandmother with a basket on the front of her bike goes weaving past me on the other side of the road, I don't think I would even think about including her into the tribe of cyclist.

I've decided that is a terrible attitude to take not just because it is snobby but because I am giving up a opportunity to make cycling more acceptable to the general population. It is highly likely that the poorly outfitted cyclists that weave their way down the road are much newer to using a bicycle for mobility rather than simple recreation. If someone has made the effort to get out on their bike and risk their life in traffic then they not only need some recognition, then also need some encouragement. A simple wave from a serious looking cyclist could accomplish both. It costs you nothing and if done consistently on a wide scale could make a major impact on bike use.

As I've written before, people are not just going to park their vehicles and start using eco-friendly alternatives just because it is the right thing to do for our planet and for future generations. The masses need incentives. What other incentive is so easy to implement and costs nothing? So if you pass me in the streets of Toronto on your bike, you are going to get a wave from me. You don't have to wave back but I hope you do. Even I sometimes need encouragement.

velomobility

Are Electric Bikes Environmentally Friendly?

40 Million Electric Bikes Spark Environmental Dilemma in China

"As China motorizes, will electric bikes displace would-be car users or simply provide a stepping stone to full blown auto ownership? They will likely lead to both outcomes. To the extent that electric bike battery technology and production processes improve, electric bikes provide some of the highest mobility and access to an urban area with some of the lowest negative impacts to the transportation system or the environment."

Interesting article on the growth of electric bikes in China. The Chinese are upgrading their pedal power with lead-acid batteries. In the west one would assume that an electric bike on the road is displacing an automobile. However maybe we need to be careful to make sure we examine that more closely. Also if you are considering an electric drive for your bike then make sure that you opt for the most environmentally friendly battery technology. If you already own an electric bike then ensure that the batteries are eventually recycled and not just discarded.

Next Generation Hybrids

The Tesla Roadster is due to be hitting the streets sometime next year. The Tesla is a high performance electric vehicle. It will be produced on a limited scale and mainly for the California market so don't expect to see one on the road anytime soon. However the Tesla may mark an important way sign on the road towards sustainable personal transportation. The Tesla sells for over $100,000 so it may appear an odd poster child for sustainability. However Tesla Motors' list of customers who will receive the first production models will undoubtedly include many high profile personalities. I'd be surprised if Jay Leno isn't on that list as well as many eco-aware celebrities. There may be some good deals on used Prius's in Hollywood next year as they are traded-in for the new Tesla. Just as the image of Arnold Schwarzenegger driving around in his Hummer ignited the market for super-huge SUV's, the introduction of the Tesla has the potential to do the same for the electric vehicle.


The are still many hurdles to making electric vehicles on the scale that conventional vehicles are produced. Unlike existing hybrids on the road today, the Tesla will use a Lithium ion battery as the main power plant. Lithium Ion batteries are expensive. While this additional cost is of little consequence to a Tesla buyer, the cost of a lithium ion battery large enough to power an average vehicle would drive up the cost considerably. The production of the Tesla has met with many delays including dealing with the challenges of using such a large lithium-ion battery. However if Tesla can overcome these challenges then that shouldn't slow down the introduction of other relatively less expensive electric vehicles. One of the stumbling blocks to wide scale use of lithium-ion batteries is cobalt. Cobalt is a relatively scarce material used in lithium-ion batteries. Scaling up production of electric vehicles would be problematic if it has to rely on cobalt for it batteries. But battery technologies have consistently improved and there are promising developments showing that lithium ion batteries can be made without cobalt.

You might be wondering why a dedicated pedal pusher would be interested in promoting any type of vehicle that isn't human powered. As fossil fuels become scarce and prohibitively expensive, people will slowly turn to whatever alternatives are available. I believe that ultimately, pedal powered vehicles will form a significant part of the available alternatives. If lightweight, reuseable inexpensive batteries are available as fossil fuel production starts to plumment, then velomobiles that can be powered by human pedal power as well as electric drives could become the preferred vehicle for local trips. The logic of moving around a couple of tons of metal will become increasingly hard to defend regardless of the source of the energy used to move it.

So when Jay Leno takes delivery of his latest $100,000 toy you can take some comfort that he is helping to ignite a revolution in personal transportation.

velomobility

Dubai - Miracle, mirage or canary in a coalmine?

Last night the CBC broadcast a documentary on Dubai (Dubai - Miracle or Mirage). It was a fascinating documentary that showed how the city has grown from a unremarkable little village in the early 1950's to a world class city today. Dubai has managed to do a lot with the relatively minor amount of oil money they have generated over the years. Unfortunately, the documentary didn't delve into Dubai's Oil Industry very much. Dubai will likely be one of the first cities (emirates) in the mid east to run out of oil. According to their own website, they expecte the oil reserves to be exhausted within 20 years. That is, of course, the most optimistic scenario. The oil majors have already mostly given up on Dubai. Even the IEA (normally known as a fount of optimism) is skeptical of Dubai's official reserve estimates. If you watched the documentary knowing about Dubai's poor oil prospects, you might still be impressed with Dubai's efforts to transition their economy away from oil. As recently as 1994, 24% of Dubai's GDP was from the oil sector. Last year the oil sector accounted for just 5.1% GDP (5.6% in 2005). While this is largely due to declining oil production, Dubai has become the jewel of the middle east as far as tourism goes. Dubai caters to the super rich as well as to the more ordinary run of the mill rich.

According to the CBC documentary, Dubai's prospects seem very good. However Dubai could be ground zero for the combined impact of peak oil and global warming. Dubai is only 16m above sea level with much of the built up area right on the shore line. Dubai may not have to wait for rising sea levels to swamp the city. Tropical cyclones could become more common and severe in the Arabian Gulf. A cyclone reach the Arabian Gulf just this year and caused more than a ripple in the world oil markets. Dubai's growing tourism industry could be an early casualty of declining worldwide oil production. While the countries of the middle east will likely have sufficient oil supplies to support their tourism industry for years to come, the rich countries that import oil will likely put heating their homes and growing food ahead of mass tourism. It is unlikely Dubai can sustain a tourism industry on the back of just the oil wealth in the mid-east.

velomobility